Shoot first and ask questions later (And have kids even if you don't want to) (Updated, sorta)

Below is a response to Patri Friedman's recent post on his pro-parenthood bias:

I'm late to the party.

My first kid is about eight weeks from greeting the world (and piercing my ears for the first few months or years!), so I've been giving the whole parenthood thing a lot of thought over the past few months.  Incidentally, though we intended to have kids eventually, it happened sooner than we were planning.

Such is the unpredictability of life.

Which brings me to a point that you didn't make, one that Bryan Caplan has alluded to via some scrounged up surveys of parents.  The data Caplan found indicates that almost no one regrets having kids.  Most parents wish they had more kids than they end up having.  And adults who don't have kids also tend to wish later that they had reproduced (For sake of saving a few words or directing others, see this post on the data).

Even though this backward-looking data supports the argument to have children, I don't think it's necessary to conclude that you should reproduce.

We are apparently quite bad at predicting what will make us happy in the future.  For a nice read on this subject, I recommend picking up Dan Gilbert's "Stumbling on Happiness" (and if you are too busy to do that, just read my selected quotes from Stumbling on Happiness here).  A theme of Gilbert, which is also a theme of books like Taleb's "The Black Swan," is that everything is much more complex than we make it out to be, and this complexity makes our grossly simplified forecasts fundamentally flawed -- useless at best -- harmful at worst.  As applied to those people who choose not to have kids, as much as they think they know what will make them happy in the future, they are almost certainly going to be wrong about their predictions.

Accepting our inability to know what will make us happy but understanding that it is a biological imperative to reproduce and realizing that it will be much more expensive to reproduce past our reproductive prime, all signs point to shooting first and asking questions later.

Of course, to have kids or not is no simple binary choice.  Procreating makes for an incredibly "bushy" (complex) life experience.  Kids add randomness and depth to our lives in ways that we can't possibly foresee but ways we will likely enjoy*.  Sure, by having kids you'll forgo some experiences as you engage life by yourself or with your significant other, but the experiences you'll forgo by not having children are wholly new and unpredictable -- the life of an entirely new human being: you, your significant other, and your kid(s).

In short, I liken parenthood to doing first and understanding later.  This is a good rule of thumb to apply across almost all facets of life -- lots of iterations make for lots of experiments through which we can learn about and enjoy life.  Not having kids is a choice to have a drastically less-interesting, much more simplistic and sterile (literally and figuratively) life.  I wouldn't wish that on anyone I care about.

So I shake my head when friends make that choice.

Finally, I don't really understand how anyone can understand humanity through the lens of evolution and not have children.  Having kids means getting in touch with our core humanity -- our biological nature -- and living out the imperative coded in our DNA: to create life.  Reject your hardwired nature at your own risk.

For my particular contribution to furthering human evolution, our kid is getting a mix of the DNA from a caucasion (me) and an Indian. Gene-swapping for the win!

• Another SoH idea is that we are better off charging into the unknown than doing nothing because our mental immune systems are better at justifying our decisions after the fact than they are at managing grief of what could have been.

** Not a brightline conclusion, I know -- you can always adopt or potentially figure out other methods to have children after you pass your reproductive time.

Update: So despite my comment being one of the last out of the 170+ comments to Patri's post, I got a couple shout-outs in follow-up posts by Patri (here and here).  And I had to throw in one more comment, which I'll copy below, which is more or less an application of Pascal's wager to the decision to have children.  So here's my second comment:

Another point regarding the buyer's remorse stats -- if the majority of people who don't have kids ultimately regret it, it seems highly likely that at least one person in a committed sterile-by-choice relationship will regret their decision. Yeah, people often select mates based on whether or not they want to have kids, but these same individuals also often change their minds about their choice (thus the tendency towards regret).

And this often leads to wrecked, otherwise fantastic relationships. I'm sure that I am biased in making this observation -- I know someone who clearly regrets not having children. His spouse of twenty years, on the other hand, seems perfectly content. And it has put an enormous amount of unspoken strain on their relationship, not to mention, it is a point of intense sadness for this individual.

I see a slight parallel to religion here. Having kids because you expect it to be somehow fulfilling is a bit like hoping for a reward in heaven when you die -- a life lived adhering to some arbitrary religious codes requires a lot of obvious work with less than obvious rewards, not unlike the decision to have kids.

Except that is where the similarity breaks down. With the choice to procreate, not only do we see the direct benefits of our own parents' choice (as in, I am alive and I believe my life is not only good for me but also for my parents), we see the benefits accruing to our friends and relatives.

I mention all of this because the anti-procreation argument assumes that you know without a reasonable doubt that you will be happier/more fulfilled/better off without children. Not only is there a lot of observational/anecdotal/statistical evidence suggesting you might be wrong, there's also the reality thatwe are very bad at predicting what will make us happy in the future. The cards, it seems, are very much stacked against those who believe they're better off without children.

So even if you don't want to now, have kids anyway. To me, this argument is a version of Pascal's wager that actually makes sense.